September 28, 2008

My Palin prediction

And I am not exactly ready to bet the retirement fund on this, just so you know, nor actually any real money. After all, gambling is immoral, right? :) But after watching the floundering of Sarah Palin, as well as the chorus of voices calling for her to tell the world she has to "spend more time with her family," I am predicting that the VP debate this Thursday will not take place. I read somewhere that internal McCain higher-ups are completely appalled with Palin's inability to manage the issues in interviews, mock debates, and mock press conferences.

McCain is in a bind. He obviously didn't vet her, and didn't even choose her on his own. He took a flier on an untested and unprepared candidate to appease the religious right and that gamble is weighing on his campaign like an albatross. If he fires her, he risks losing the right and that would doom his campaign. But if he keeps her, he risks losing the rest of the country and dooming his campaign. I would not be surprised if Palin invokes some family emergency (with an infant child and pregnant daughter that would not be either unreasonable or difficult to do) and bowing out. It cannot look like McCain pushed her out, though I suspect that is certainly a possibility.

More likely, I think is that McCain looks at his chances in November and thinks he is a long shot as it is. Booting Palin doesn't actually help him either, and he may decide that he should just stick with her. But I am going to be surprised if they don't pull some kind of stunt to delay the debate until..., well, maybe December.

When your VP candidate is such a joke that SNL can pull direct quotes (lengthy ones too) in a "parody" of your interview with Couric, you are in trouble. It is one thing to mock mannerisms or speech patterns, but when your entire candidacy IS the joke--that isn't good.

13 comments:

P M Prescott said...

Ever wonder why a beautiful woman is always with a homely or over weight best friend? They look even better by comparison. Palin is the eye candy, but she makes him look scholarly by comparison.

Tony said...

Good call. I have actually been mulling this same thing over myself, and would not be surprised to see her invoke a family emergency, in the way Kathleen Parker speculated would be an easy out for her. I really think that is the only way she could go and save face.

All told though, I really do feel bad for her as a person. This is harsh for her and her career--she may have ruined her chances of a future bid. She is going to have to work terribly hard to ever be taken seriously again. It won't be that she can go home with her head held high. People will know that she just couldn't cut it, even if she feigns problems at home. Her only chance in that regard will be the fact that the right has a short memory.

Streak said...

As I keep saying, I too feel some compassion for someone becoming a national joke before our own eyes. But she signed herself (and her entire family) up for this.

Tony said...

Yeah--like Parker, though, I felt a tad of optimism for her, if nothing less than rooting for the underdog. If she really was a maverick or a pit bull or whatever, there would have been nothing wrong with declining until a better time. Shoot, many would have respected that a whole heck of a lot more.

JoeG said...

If McCain somehow manages to get elected, Palin will go down in history as the next Dan Quayle. She's already on her way. McCain and Palin have dug themselves into a pretty deep hole. And that he still has much support as he does, especially with Bush's approval ratings still in the sewer, just floors me.

steves said...

the chorus of voices calling for her to tell the world she has to "spend more time with her family,"

What chorus? Kathleen Parker is at least a conservative, but Zakaria is not. I heard Rush Limbaugh doesn't like Biden. Maybe he should drop out. ; )

When your VP candidate is such a joke that SNL can pull direct quotes (lengthy ones too) in a "parody" of your interview with Couric, you are in trouble

Good point. I am interested to see how she does in the debate. If it is poor, then I would expect them to consider asking her to resign. As an aside, it is interesting to see SNL benefit from this. That show hasn't been good in so long. I used to Tivo it and fast forward through the boring stuff, but stopped Tivo'ing when the show was no longer funny.

steves said...

Her only chance in that regard will be the fact that the right has a short memory.

No worse than most of the population. Many of the 90's Clinton cronies attached themselves to Hillary's campaign and there was little said.

Monk-in-Training said...

Don't worry about Palin. Her future is assured and bright. Once she loses this election, she will 'write' a book on how the evil liburls stole the election from a good Christian, and fill the book stores with her tome. Then she will then go on the talk circuit and make a mint. Conservative Christians will pay big to hear her blast those ungodly types that picked on her during the election!

She will do just fine out of this, win or lose.

Tony said...

Sort of the way it has happened with Huckabee. After his sore defeat in the primaries, he formed a PAC, wrote a book, and is now a contributor for Fox News. Sigh!

steves said...

Look at Gore. He has done well after losing and has remarketed himself as some kind of environmental 'expert'.

Streak said...

Yeah, but Gore wasn't just a failed candidate. He had a long history in the Senate and 8 years as VP. Not only that, but he didn't remake himself as an environmental expert, he had written on that subject for many years.

steves said...

My point is that it is not all that unusual for candidates (failed or not) to go on to other careers. I think it is a bit premature to predict the political downfall of Palin.

As for Gore, publishing books doesn't make him an expert. He is a hypocrite, with a mediocre record on the environment, and I would hardly call him an expert, but that is just my opinion.

Streak said...

He is a hypocrite, with a mediocre record on the environment,

Ok then. Glad to know what you really think. I assume you are talking about his house not being as green as Bush's in Crawford?

I think Gore had accomplished much more than that. Oh, and I used the word "expert" because you did. Perhaps I missed your derision the first time. I think we may look back on the warnings Gore gave us and ponder missed opportunities. I think he can be credited for popularizing the seriousness of climate change. Not sure he can be easily dismissed for that.